Key Takeaways
- • The MPC held the policy rate in a band that keeps mortgages around 5.5–6.5% through H1 2026
- • A 1% rate rise adds nearly THB 1,800/month to a 3M loan
- • A flat-rate window is the time to lock fixed rates and refinance
Most buyers stare at the sticker price, but what really decides whether you can afford a home is a number set far away: the policy rate set by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC). Each decision flows into commercial banks' mortgage rates within weeks.
From policy rate to your payment
Banks price mortgages off reference rates like the MRR, which track the policy rate. When the bank's funding cost rises, it passes through to borrowers. In 2026 most home loans sit in the 5.5–6.5% range — broadly stable year on year.
Numbers buyers should know
| Loan | At 5.5% | At 6.5% | Diff/mo |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2,000,000 | ~12,300 | ~13,500 | +1,200 |
| 3,000,000 | ~18,400 | ~20,200 | +1,800 |
| 5,000,000 | ~30,700 | ~33,700 | +3,000 |
Over a 30-year term, a 1% gap compounds into several hundred thousand baht.
What to do now
With rates flat-to-high, compare 3-year fixed promotions across banks — the early years carry the most interest. If you have paid your current loan for 3+ years, refinancing to reset the rate is often worth it. And do not borrow to the approved ceiling; keep your payment near 30–35% of income to stay comfortable if rates move.
References
- Bank of Thailand — MPC meeting minutes
- Real Estate Information Center (REIC) — housing loan reports
